In 1917 European history, in the old sense, came to an end. World history began. It was the year of Lenin and Woodrow Wilson, both of whom repudiated the traditional standards of political behaviour. Both preached Utopia, Heaven on Earth. It was the moment of birth for our contemporary world.

The First World War had begun - imposed on the statesmen of Europe by railway timetables. It was an unexpected climax to the railway age.

Like most of those who study history, he learned from the mistakes of the past how to make new ones.

A racing tipster who only reached Hitler's level of accuracy would not do well for his clients.