A three standard deviation is a statistical fluctuation; a five standard deviation effect is a miracle. Quoted by Owen Chamberlain.
About this quote
- What does it mean?
- Small statistical variations are normal, but extremely rare deviations suggest something extraordinary is happening.
- In plain terms
- Common errors happen often, but huge surprises mean something new is found.
- What can you take from it?
- Treat rare statistical outliers as potential breakthroughs.
Where it applies
Putting it to work
Questions to consider
- How rare must an event be to matter?
- What counts as a miracle in your field?
Another view
Rare events can still be random noise without real meaning.
More from Enrico Fermi
Whatever nature has in store for mankind, unpleasant as it may be, men must accept, for ignorance is never better than knowledge.
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