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Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality - but reality as distorted by a misconception. Under normal conditions misconceptions are self-correcting, and the markets tend toward some kind of equilibrium. Occasionally, a misconception is reinforced by a trend prevailing in reality, and that is when a boom-bust process gets under way. Eventually the gap between reality and its false interpretation becomes unsustainable, and the bubble bursts.

George Soros#39

MarketsInvestingPsychology

About this quote

What does it mean?
Market bubbles arise from real conditions distorted by false beliefs. When these beliefs align with trends, a boom-bust cycle begins until the gap between reality and illusion becomes unsustainable.
In plain terms
Bubbles happen when people misunderstand reality, and the market only corrects itself when that misunderstanding breaks.
What can you take from it?
Be wary when market trends reinforce existing biases instead of correcting them.

Where it applies

  • investing decisions
  • economic analysis
  • risk assessment

Putting it to work

  • monitor market sentiment
  • identify confirmation bias
  • prepare for corrections

Questions to consider

  • What misconceptions are currently reinforcing market trends?
  • How do you distinguish between reality and distorted interpretation?

Another view

Markets can stay irrational longer than investors can stay solvent.

More from George Soros

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  2. Now look at the ideology of American supremacy. It has a solid foundation in reality; namely, the United States is the dominant power in the world. The current…

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  3. I think he's a man of good intentions. I don't doubt it. But I think he's leading us in the wrong direction.

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