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'There has been a good deal of comment-some of it quite outlandish-about what our postwar requirements might be in Iraq. Some of the higher end predictions we have been hearing recently, such as the notion that it will take several hundred thousand U.S. troops to provide stability in post-Saddam Iraq, are wildly off the mark. It is hard to conceive that it would take more forces to provide stability in post-Saddam Iraq than it would take to conduct the war itself and to secure the surrender of Saddam's security forces and his army-hard to imagine.'

Paul Wolfowitz#1

WarPolicyStrategyMilitary strategyPrediction

About this quote

What does it mean?
The speaker claims predictions about the number of troops needed for stability in post-war Iraq are exaggerated and unrealistic.
In plain terms
He says estimates requiring hundreds of thousands of troops for stability are wrong and unnecessary.
What can you take from it?
Military planning estimates should align with the scale of the conflict.

Where it applies

  • policy debates
  • briefings
  • media reporting

Putting it to work

  • evaluate resource needs
  • assess operational risks
  • track prediction accuracy

Questions to consider

  • How do we forecast military needs?
  • Why do official estimates fail?

Another view

History later showed the actual troop needs were far higher than predicted.

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