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Two centuries ago Leibnitz invented a calculating machine which embodied most of the essential features of recent keyboard devices, but it could not then come into use. The economics of the situation were against it: the labor involved in constructing it, before the days of mass production, exceeded the labor to be saved by its use, since all it could accomplish could be duplicated by sufficient use of pencil and paper. Moreover, it would have been subject to frequent breakdown, so that it could not have been depended upon; for at that time and long after, complexity and unreliability were synonymous.

Vannevar Bush#7

TechnologyInnovationEconomicsReliabilityFailure

About this quote

What does it mean?
Leibnitz's calculating machine failed because it was too costly and unreliable compared to pencil and paper at the time.
In plain terms
Early machines didn't work because they were too expensive to build and too likely to break.
What can you take from it?
Technology needs to be affordable and reliable to be useful.

Where it applies

  • invention
  • manufacturing
  • adoption

Putting it to work

  • assessing tech viability
  • cost benefit analysis
  • prototype testing

Questions to consider

  • When is reliability more important than cost?
  • How do you weigh labor saved vs labor to build?

Another view

High initial cost can block useful tech even if it saves labor later.

More from Vannevar Bush

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  3. Professionally our methods of transmitting and reviewing the results of research are generations old and by now are totally inadequate for their purpose. If th…

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