Skip to content
quotesby

When the number of factors coming into play in a phenomenological complex is too large, scientific method in most cases fails us. One need only think of the weather, in which case prediction even for a few days ahead is impossible. Nevertheless no one doubts that we are confronted with a causal connection whose causal components are in the main known to us. Occurrences in this domain are beyond the reach of exact prediction because of the variety of factors in operation, not because of any lack of order in nature.

Albert Einstein#125

ScienceNatureComplexityCausalityPrediction

About this quote

What does it mean?
Scientific methods struggle when too many variables interact, as seen in weather prediction, even though causal connections exist.
In plain terms
Too many factors make exact prediction hard, but order still exists in nature.
What can you take from it?
Complex systems limit prediction despite known causes.

Where it applies

  • weather forecasting
  • scientific research
  • system analysis

Putting it to work

  • accept limits of prediction
  • study variable interactions

Questions to consider

  • When does complexity override order?
  • How do we study unpredictable systems?

Another view

It assumes causal components are known, which is not always true.

More from Albert Einstein

  1. Nobody, certainly, will deny that the idea of the existence of an omnipotent, just, and omnibeneficent personal God is able to accord man solace, help, and gui…

    Permalink to quote #124
  2. The more a man is imbued with the ordered regularity of all events the firmer becomes his conviction that there is no room left by the side of this ordered reg…

    Permalink to quote #126
  3. Even though the realms of religion and science in themselves are clearly marked off from each other, nevertheless there exist between the two strong reciprocal…

    Permalink to quote #123

Related quotes

  1. Raffiniert ist der Herrgott, aber boshaft ist er nicht.

    Albert EinsteinAlbert Einstein quote #10
  2. Human knowledge and human power meet in one; for where the cause is not known the effect cannot be produced. Nature to be commanded must be obeyed; and that wh…

    Francis BaconFrancis Bacon quote #29
  3. Perhaps randomness is not merely an adequate description for complex causes that we cannot specify. Perhaps the world really works this way, and many events ar…

    Stephen Jay GouldStephen Jay Gould quote #39