The art of concluding from experience and observation consists in evaluating probabilities, in estimating if they are high or numerous enough to constitute proof. This type of calculation is more complicated and more difficult than one might think. It demands a great sagacity generally above the power of common people. The success of charlatans, sorcerors, and alchemists-and all those who abuse public credulity-is founded on errors in this type of calculation.
About this quote
- What does it mean?
- Judging probabilities from experience is hard and easy to get wrong.
- In plain terms
- Calculating what is likely takes skill and is often mistaken.
- What can you take from it?
- Be careful when judging risk from experience.
Where it applies
Putting it to work
Questions to consider
- When do we misjudge odds?
Another view
Some people are naturally good at it.
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