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A junkyard contains all the bits and pieces of a Boeing 747, dismembered and in disarray. A whirlwind happens to blow through the yard. What is the chance that after its passage a fully assembled 747, ready to fly, will be found standing there? So small as to be negligible, even if a tornado were to blow through enough junkyards to fill the whole Universe.

Fred Hoyle#4

EvolutionChanceComplexityDesignLifeProbability

About this quote

What does it mean?
Hoyle uses the 747 tornado analogy to argue against random spontaneous generation of complex life.
In plain terms
Complex things like life cannot happen by pure chance like a tornado assembling a plane.
What can you take from it?
Complexity implies design or process, not random luck.

Where it applies

  • creationism debates
  • biology class
  • philosophy of science

Putting it to work

  • explaining evolutionary complexity

Questions to consider

  • How does order arise?
  • Is chance enough for life?

Another view

The analogy ignores natural selection as a non-random force.

More from Fred Hoyle

  1. Space isn't remote at all. It's only an hour's drive away if your car could go straight upwards.

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  2. The creationist is a sham religious person who, curiously, has no true sense of religion. In the language of religion, it is the facts we observe in the world …

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  3. We are inescapably the result of a long heritage of learning, adaptation, mutation and evolution, the product of a history which predates our birth as a biolog…

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