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I confess that I prefer true but imperfect knowledge, even if it leaves much indetermined and unpredictable, to a pretence of exact knowledge that is likely to be false. The credit which the apparent conformity with recognized scientific standards can gain for seemingly simple but false theories may, as the present instance shows, have grave consequences.

Friedrich Hayek#109

KnowledgeScienceTruthUncertaintyDecision

About this quote

What does it mean?
Hayek prefers imperfect but true knowledge over false claims of exactness. He warns that theories appearing scientific but false can have serious consequences.
In plain terms
Accept unknown truth over false certainty that looks scientific.
What can you take from it?
Humility about knowledge prevents costly mistakes.

Where it applies

  • scientific policy
  • decision making
  • academic research

Putting it to work

  • question false certainty
  • value honest uncertainty

Questions to consider

  • How do you handle uncertainty?
  • Is false confidence better than doubt?

Another view

Sometimes false certainty leads to action while uncertainty leads to paralysis.

More from Friedrich Hayek

  1. There may be few instances in which the superstition that only measurable magnitudes can be important has done positive harm in the economic field: but the pre…

    Permalink to quote #108
  2. To entrust to science - or to deliberate control according to scientific principles - more than scientific method can achieve may have deplorable effects. The …

    Permalink to quote #110
  3. The social sciences, like much of biology but unlike most fields of the physical sciences, have to deal with structures of essential complexity, i.e. with stru…

    Permalink to quote #107

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