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The social sciences, like much of biology but unlike most fields of the physical sciences, have to deal with structures of essential complexity, i.e. with structures whose characteristic properties can be exhibited only by models made up of relatively large numbers of variables. Competition, for instance, is a process which will produce certain results only if it proceeds among a fairly large number of acting persons.

Friedrich Hayek#107

ComplexityPredictionSocial science

About this quote

What does it mean?
Social sciences face essential complexity requiring many variables, unlike physical sciences.
In plain terms
Studying people needs complex models because there are too many factors.
What can you take from it?
Social systems need complex modeling to be understood.

Where it applies

  • research methodology
  • policy analysis

Putting it to work

  • use multi-variable models
  • expect uncertainty

Questions to consider

  • How complex is society?
  • Can social science be precise?

Another view

Simplified social models can still offer useful insights despite limitations.

More from Friedrich Hayek

  1. There may thus well exist better 'scientific' evidence for a false theory, which will be accepted because it is more 'scientific', than for a valid explanation…

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  2. There may be few instances in which the superstition that only measurable magnitudes can be important has done positive harm in the economic field: but the pre…

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  3. While in the physical sciences the investigator will be able to measure what, on the basis of a prima facie theory, he thinks important, in the social sciences…

    Permalink to quote #105

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