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The chief point we must remember is that the great and rapid advance of the physical sciences took place in fields where it proved that explanation and prediction could be based on laws which accounted for the observed phenomena as functions of comparatively few variables - either particular facts or relative frequencies of events.

Friedrich Hayek#115

Attribution disputed; shown as originally published.

SciencePredictionLaws

About this quote

What does it mean?
Physical sciences advanced by finding laws that explain phenomena using few variables.
In plain terms
Science grows when we can predict outcomes with simple rules.
What can you take from it?
Simplicity in variables aids scientific prediction.

Where it applies

  • research design
  • scientific education

Putting it to work

  • seek simple models
  • focus on key variables

Questions to consider

  • What makes a law useful?
  • Can all science be simple?

Another view

Real world phenomena often require complex models to be accurate.

More from Friedrich Hayek

  1. If I am not mistaken, psychology, psychiatry and some branches of sociology, not to speak about the so-called philosophy of history, are even more affected by …

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  2. As we advance we find more and more frequently that we can in fact ascertain only some but not all the particular circumstances which determine the outcome of …

    Permalink to quote #116
  3. The conflict between what in its present mood the public expects science to achieve in satisfaction of popular hopes and what is really in its power is a serio…

    Permalink to quote #113

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