The superpowers often behave like two heavily armed blind men feeling their way around a room, each believing himself in mortal peril from the other, whom he assumes to have perfect vision. Each side should know that frequently uncertainty, compromise, and incoherence are the essence of policymaking. Yet each tends to ascribe to the other a consistency, foresight, and coherence that its own experience belies. Of course, over time, even two armed blind men can do enormous damage to each other, not to speak of the room.
About this quote
- What does it mean?
- Superpowers misjudge each other's stability despite shared uncertainty.
- In plain terms
- Nations assume enemies are coherent while ignoring their own chaos.
- What can you take from it?
- Recognize mutual uncertainty in conflict.
Where it applies
Putting it to work
Questions to consider
- How do leaders reduce dangerous misperceptions?
Another view
Assumes all actors share similar levels of rationality.
More from Henry Kissinger
In the 1950s and 1960s we put several thousand nuclear weapons into Europe. To be sure, we had no percise idea of what to do with them.
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