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About this quote

What does it mean?
Predicting collective human decisions about rationality is difficult.
In plain terms
It is hard to guess what large groups of people will decide is reasonable.
What can you take from it?
Group behavior often defies individual logic.

Where it applies

  • market analysis
  • political forecasting
  • social planning

Putting it to work

  • expect unexpected trends
  • avoid overconfidence in models
  • observe group dynamics

Questions to consider

  • Why do crowds act irrationally?
  • How do we measure public rationality?

Another view

Rationality is subjective and varies across cultures.

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