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The stock of money, prices and output was decidedly more unstable after the establishment of the Reserve System than before. The most dramatic period of instability in output was, of course, the period between the two wars, which includes the severe (monetary) contractions of 1920-1, 1929-33, and 1937-8. No other 20 year period in American history contains as many as three such severe contractions. This evidence persuades me that at least a third of the price rise during and just after World War I is attributable to the establishment of the Federal Reserve System... and that the severity of each of the major contractions - 1920-1, 1929-33 and 1937-8 is directly attributable to acts of commission and omission by the Reserve authorities... Any system which gives so much power and so much discretion to a few men, [so] that mistakes - excusable or not - can have such far reaching effects, is a bad system. It is a bad system to believers in freedom just because it gives a few men such power without any effective check by the body politic - this is the key political argument against an independent central bank... To paraphrase Clemenceau, money is much too serious a matter to be left to the central bankers.

Milton Friedman#14

PoliticsEconomicsPolicyHistoryInflationBankingFinance

About this quote

What does it mean?
Friedman argues that the Federal Reserve caused significant economic instability and price rises after WWI, with major recessions tied to its actions.
In plain terms
The Fed made the economy more unstable and caused price hikes after WWI.
What can you take from it?
Too much power in a central bank can lead to severe economic swings.

Where it applies

  • policy making
  • historical economic analysis
  • financial regulation

Putting it to work

  • limit central bank discretion
  • increase transparency
  • implement checks on monetary authority

Questions to consider

  • How much power should a central bank have?
  • What safeguards can prevent policy mistakes?

Another view

Other factors besides the Fed also influence economic cycles.

More from Milton Friedman

  1. A society that puts equality before freedom will get neither. A society that puts freedom before equality will get a high degree of both.

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  2. I know of no severe depression, in any country or any time, that was not accompanied by a sharp decline in the stock of money and equally of no sharp decline i…

    Permalink to quote #15
  3. Spending by government currently amounts to about 45 percent of national income. By that test, government owns 45 percent of the means of production that produ…

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