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Let us learn our lessons. ... Never believe any war will be smooth and easy or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events: incompetent or arrogant commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant fortune, ugly surprise, awful miscalculations. ... Always remember, however sure you are that you could easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance.

Winston Churchill#2

HistoryWarLeadershipCaution

About this quote

What does it mean?
Churchill warns that war becomes uncontrollable and unpredictable once started.
In plain terms
Once war starts, leaders lose control to chaos.
What can you take from it?
Avoid war unless absolutely necessary.

Where it applies

  • policy decisions
  • conflict planning
  • historical study

Putting it to work

  • weigh consequences
  • seek peaceful alternatives

Questions to consider

  • Is war ever a calculated risk?
  • How to prepare for uncertainty?

Another view

Some conflicts may be unavoidable despite the risks.

More from Winston Churchill

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  3. Where my reason, imagination or interest were not engaged, I would not or I could not learn.

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