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Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent, or arrogant Commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations - all take their seats at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war. Always remember, however sure you are that you could easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance.

Winston Churchill#26

WarLeadershipRiskDecisionUncertainty

About this quote

What does it mean?
War is unpredictable and statesmen lose control once it starts.
In plain terms
War is chaotic and hard to control.
What can you take from it?
Expect the unexpected when going to war.

Where it applies

  • policy making
  • strategic planning
  • conflict analysis

Putting it to work

  • plan for uncertainty
  • avoid rash decisions

Questions to consider

  • How do you prepare for chaos?
  • Who is responsible for war's outcomes?

Another view

Sometimes decisive action is needed despite risks.

More from Winston Churchill

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  3. I remember when I was a child, being taken to the celebrated Barnum's Circus, which contained an exhibition of freaks and monstrosities, but the exhibit on the…

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