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The best authorities are unanimous in saying that a war with H-bombs might possibly put an end to the human race. It is feared that if many H-bombs are used there will be universal death, sudden only for a minority, but for the majority a slow torture of disease and disintegration. Many warnings have been uttered by eminent men of science and by authorities in military strategy. None of them will say that the worst results are certain. What they do say is that these results are possible, and no one can be sure that they will not be realized. We have not yet found that the views of experts on this question depend in any degree upon their politics or prejudices. They depend only, so far as our researches have revealed, upon the extent of the particular expert's knowledge. We have found that the men who know most are the most gloomy.

Bertrand Russell#182

RiskUncertaintyNuclearOpinionSecurity

About this quote

What does it mean?
Experts warn that nuclear war could cause universal death or slow suffering; the most knowledgeable are the most pessimistic, yet certainty is lacking.
In plain terms
Nuclear war could cause massive death; experts are gloomy but not certain.
What can you take from it?
Take nuclear risk seriously while recognizing uncertainty.

Where it applies

  • defense planning
  • public awareness

Putting it to work

  • nuclear disarmament advocacy
  • risk communication

Questions to consider

  • How should societies balance fear and action?
  • What evidence would change your view on nuclear risk?

Another view

Predictions are based on limited models and may overstate or understate outcomes.

More from Bertrand Russell

  1. We have to learn to think in a new way. We have to learn to ask ourselves, not what steps can be taken to give military victory to whatever group we prefer, fo…

    Permalink to quote #181
  2. Here, then, is the problem which we present to you, stark and dreadful and inescapable: Shall we put an end to the human race; or shall mankind renounce war? P…

    Permalink to quote #183
  3. The world is full of conflicts; and, overshadowing all minor conflicts, the titanic struggle between Communism and anti-Communism. Almost everybody who is poli…

    Permalink to quote #180

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