In the first six to twelve months of a war with the United States and Great Britain I will run wild and win victory upon victory. But then, if the war continues after that, I have no expectation of success.
About this quote
- What does it mean?
- Yamamoto predicted short-term Japanese success against the US and UK but long-term failure due to industrial capacity.
- In plain terms
- He thought Japan could win early battles but would lose the long war.
- What can you take from it?
- Short-term tactical wins cannot overcome long-term industrial disadvantages.
Where it applies
Putting it to work
Questions to consider
- Can strategy overcome numbers?
- When does a win become a loss?
Another view
The prediction relies on assumptions about enemy industrial mobilization.
More from Isoroku Yamamoto
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