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About this quote

What does it mean?
Officials use forecasts to reduce worry instead of to guide good policy.
In plain terms
Bureaucrats forecast to calm fears not to make better plans.
What can you take from it?
Be skeptical of official predictions.

Where it applies

  • government reporting
  • public policy

Putting it to work

  • question motives
  • check outcomes

Questions to consider

  • Why do people make predictions?
  • How do you judge forecasts?

Another view

Forecasts can sometimes be accurate despite bad motives.

More from Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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  3. A casino is the only human venture I know where the probabilities are known.

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