Forecasting by bureacrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making.
About this quote
- What does it mean?
- Officials use forecasts to reduce worry instead of to guide good policy.
- In plain terms
- Bureaucrats forecast to calm fears not to make better plans.
- What can you take from it?
- Be skeptical of official predictions.
Where it applies
Putting it to work
Questions to consider
- Why do people make predictions?
- How do you judge forecasts?
Another view
Forecasts can sometimes be accurate despite bad motives.
More from Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Probability is a liberal art.
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