[T]he same past data can confirm a theory and its exact opposite! If you survive until tomorrow, it could mean that either a) you are more likely to be immortal or b) that you are closer to death.
About this quote
- What does it mean?
- Historical data can support contradictory conclusions, highlighting the danger of relying on past events to predict survival or future risks.
- In plain terms
- Past records can prove opposite things, so surviving today doesn't guarantee safety or death.
- What can you take from it?
- Avoid assuming past survival predicts future outcomes.
Where it applies
Putting it to work
Questions to consider
- What past evidence do you trust too much?
- How do you distinguish signal from noise?
Another view
This ignores cases where past data genuinely indicates strong patterns.
More from Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Forecasting by bureacrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making.
Permalink to quote #16 In practice, randomness is fundamentally incomplete information.
Permalink to quote #18 Probability is a liberal art.
Permalink to quote #15
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