Nassim Nicholas Taleb Quotes on Statistics
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I always remind myself that what one observes is at best a combination of variance and returns, not just returns.
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[T]he same past data can confirm a theory and its exact opposite! If you survive until tomorrow, it could mean that either a) you are more likely to be immortal or b) that you are closer to death.
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Never cross a river because it is on average 4 feet deep.