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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Quote #23
Never cross a river because it is on average 4 feet deep.
More from Nassim Nicholas Taleb
... we should reward people, not ridicule them, for thinking the impossible.
Much of the research into humans' risk-avoidance machinery shows that it is antiquated and unfit for the modern world; it is made to counte…
It is now the scientific consensus that our risk-avoidance mechanism is not mediated by the cognitive modules of our brain, but rather by t…
[G]ain exposure to the envelope of serendipity.
In practice, randomness is fundamentally incomplete information.
[T]he same past data can confirm a theory and its exact opposite! If you survive until tomorrow, it could mean that either a) you are more …
Forecasting by bureacrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making.
Probability is a liberal art.
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