Never cross a river because it is on average 4 feet deep.
About this quote
- What does it mean?
- Average measurements can hide dangerous extremes, making risk assessment based on averages misleading.
- In plain terms
- Don't cross a river just because its average depth is safe.
- What can you take from it?
- Avoid decisions based only on averages.
Where it applies
Putting it to work
Questions to consider
- Where do you trust averages too much?
- What are the worst cases?
Another view
Averages remain useful for general estimates.
More from Nassim Nicholas Taleb
... we should reward people, not ridicule them, for thinking the impossible.
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