Results rarely specify their causes unambiguously. If we have no direct evidence of fossils or human chronicles, if we are forced to infer a process only from its modern results, then we are usually stymied or reduced to speculation about probabilities. For many roads lead to almost any Rome.
About this quote
- What does it mean?
- Historical causes are rarely clear from results alone, often requiring speculation when direct evidence is missing.
- In plain terms
- It is hard to know exactly what caused past events without direct records.
- What can you take from it?
- Be cautious when inferring causes from outcomes without evidence.
Where it applies
Putting it to work
Questions to consider
- Do effects always reveal causes?
- How do you handle uncertainty?
Another view
Multiple causes can sometimes be identified with statistical correlation.
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