Skip to content
quotesby

About this quote

What does it mean?
Historical causes are rarely clear from results alone, often requiring speculation when direct evidence is missing.
In plain terms
It is hard to know exactly what caused past events without direct records.
What can you take from it?
Be cautious when inferring causes from outcomes without evidence.

Where it applies

  • historical research
  • data analysis

Putting it to work

  • seek direct evidence
  • avoid single-cause narratives

Questions to consider

  • Do effects always reveal causes?
  • How do you handle uncertainty?

Another view

Multiple causes can sometimes be identified with statistical correlation.

More from Stephen Jay Gould

  1. Organisms are not billiard balls, propelled by simple and measurable external forces to predictable new positions on life's pool table. Sufficiently complex sy…

    Permalink to quote #15
  2. Throughout his last half-dozen books, for example, Arthur Koestler has been conducting a campaign against his own misunderstanding of Darwinism. He hopes to fi…

    Permalink to quote #17
  3. If you defend a behavior by arguing that people are programmed directly for it, then how do you continue to defend it if your speculation is wrong, for the beh…

    Permalink to quote #14

Related quotes

  1. Here before us was sufficient evidence to show that it really was an entrance to a tomb, and by the seals, to all outward appearances that it was intact.

    Howard CarterHoward Carter quote #1
  2. Much suspected by me, Nothing proved can be, Quoth Elizabeth prisoner.

    Elizabeth I of EnglandElizabeth I of England quote #1
  3. Food probably has a very great influence on the condition of men. Wine exercises a more visible influence, food does it more slowly but perhaps just as surely.…

    Georg Christoph LichtenbergGeorg Christoph Lichtenberg quote #4