Consider that the turkey's experience may have, rather than no value, a negative value. It learned from observation, as we are all advised to do (hey, after all, this is what is believed to be the scientific method). Its confidence increased as the number of friendly feedings grew, and it felt increasingly safe even though the slaughter was more and more imminent. Consider that the feeling of safety reached its maximum when the risk was at the highest!

We favor the visible, the embedded, the personal, the narrated, and the tangible; we scorn the abstract.

A casino is the only human venture I know where the probabilities are known.

Probability is not about the odds, but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome, cause, or motive.

Anything you don't understand is dangerous until you do understand it.

'Note that I hold the single-author record for total CERT advisories, proving that in my copious youth I knew how to sling code but not how to manage risk.' (2…

My approach is I'm coming from a place where it's okay to take chances or maybe it's a good thing to fall on your face.