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While we were never able to provide 100 percent certainty regarding the disposition of Iraq's proscribed weaponry, we did ascertain a 90-95 percent level of verified disarmament. This figure takes into account the destruction or dismantling of every major factory associated with prohibited weapons manufacture, all significant items of production equipment, and the majority of the weapons and agent produced by Iraq.

Scott Ritter#2

IraqVerificationWeapons

About this quote

What does it mean?
The speaker claims high confidence in verifying disarmament despite lacking absolute certainty about all weaponry.
In plain terms
We proved most weapons were destroyed even if we could not prove every single one was gone.
What can you take from it?
High verification levels can exist without total certainty.

Where it applies

  • policy reporting
  • arms control
  • public briefings

Putting it to work

  • reporting on inspections
  • assessing compliance

Questions to consider

  • How much proof is enough for action?
  • Who verifies the verifiers?

Another view

Absolute certainty is impossible in complex verification tasks.

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