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[T]ruly grand and powerful theories [:] do not and cannot rest upon single observations. Evolution is an inference from thousands of independent sources, the only conceptual structure that can make unified sense of all this disparate information. The failure of a particular claim usually records a local error, not the bankruptcy of a central theory. [:] If I mistakenly identify your father's brother as your own dad, you don't become genealogically rootless and created de novo. You still have a father; we just haven't located him properly.

Stephen Jay Gould#139

ScienceEvidenceTheoryLogic

About this quote

What does it mean?
Grand theories stand on many independent lines of evidence, so one failure does not collapse the whole structure.
In plain terms
Big ideas are built on thousands of facts, so one mistake does not prove them wrong.
What can you take from it?
Judge theories by their full body of evidence, not single errors.

Where it applies

  • scientific analysis
  • legal reasoning
  • debate

Putting it to work

  • look for patterns
  • avoid single-point failure
  • trust consensus

Questions to consider

  • When did you judge a theory too quickly?
  • What evidence supports your beliefs?

Another view

Sometimes a single contradiction does overturn a core theory.

More from Stephen Jay Gould

  1. I am particularly fond of [Emmanuel Mendes da Costa's] Natural History of Fossils because this treatise, more than any other work written in English, records a…

    Permalink to quote #138
  2. Theories rarely arise as patient inferences forced by accumulated facts. Theories are mental constructs potentiated by complex external prods (including, in id…

    Permalink to quote #140
  3. Very little comes easily to our poor, benighted species (the first creature, after all, to experiment with the novel evolutionary inventions of self-conscious …

    Permalink to quote #137

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