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About this quote

What does it mean?
Human affairs are mostly unpredictable, but we can be certain about extreme outcomes like total extinction.
In plain terms
We rarely know what will happen, but we know war could end the world.
What can you take from it?
Extreme outcomes are more certain than normal predictions.

Where it applies

  • discussing global risks
  • analyzing peace prospects

Putting it to work

  • evaluate existential threats
  • prioritize peace efforts

Questions to consider

  • What gives you confidence about the future?
  • How sure are you about peace?

Another view

It oversimplifies the complexity of human progress.

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