We cannot say much about human affairs with any confidence, but sometimes it is possible. We can, for example, be fairly confident that either there will be a world without war, or there won't be a world -- at least, a world inhabited by creatures other than bacteria and beetles, with some scattering of others.
About this quote
- What does it mean?
- Human affairs are mostly unpredictable, but we can be certain about extreme outcomes like total extinction.
- In plain terms
- We rarely know what will happen, but we know war could end the world.
- What can you take from it?
- Extreme outcomes are more certain than normal predictions.
Where it applies
Putting it to work
Questions to consider
- What gives you confidence about the future?
- How sure are you about peace?
Another view
It oversimplifies the complexity of human progress.
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